Daily Discourse – Fuel Cost ≠ Fare Increment

This is even better than a cup of coffee. I get so pissed off after reading I can’t sleep even until 0130hrs in the morning.

Will try to contain costs
By Li Xueying, Political Correspondent

WITH 2009 shaping up to be a ‘difficult year’, the government will try to moderate public transport costs next year, promised Transport Minister Raymond Lim on Sunday.

The Public Transport Council (PTC) will continue to take economic conditions into account in its annual assessment of bus and train fares, due in the second half of next year, he added.

But Mr Lim also tempered hopes that current falling oil prices will translate into a similar drop in fares, saying that there is no direct correlation between the two. If there is, public transport fares would have shot up 40 percent between last year and earlier this year on the back of a spike in oil prices over the period, but did not, he said.

Mr Lim was speaking at a dialogue with some 300 MacPherson residents on Sunday. He was accompanied by Member of Parliament for MacPherson Matthias Yao.

In the morning, he toured the constituency, distributing food rations, chatting with residents and participating in a ceremony to lock in a time capsule containing items such as community photos.

This was followed by an hour-long dialogue where the minister fielded six questions. While a few residents touched on matters such as cycling paths and foreign workers, it was clear that concerns about the cost of living amid a recession were on the top of most minds.

Mr Gillian Teo, 54, a business development manager, started the ball rolling by expressing the hope that there will not be any public transport fare increase next year, as retrenchments mount.

In his response, Mr Lim said: ‘I can understand his concern. It’s going to be a difficult year next year, so we’ll try our best if possible to moderate the costs.

‘How do we do it?’

The PTC, which regulates public transport fares, will have to ‘sit down’ and weigh various factors: the impact on commuters, on transport operators and the economic conditions.

‘So it will factor all this in,’ he said.

The last round of fare adjustments was in September, when the PTC approved an overall net hike of 0.7 percent in bus and train fares.

But the minister also dispelled the hope expressed in a popular question that he said many have put to him: With oil prices now plummeting, why not fares too?

‘That’s a fair question,’ he said. ‘The answer is that public transport fares are not directly linked to oil prices.’

Instead, they are tied to what Mr Lim called national factors: the level of inflation and average wage increases.

Refuting the idea that fares are directly linked to oil prices, he pointed out that ‘from 2007 to this year… oil prices went up 40 percent, but fares went up just 0.7 percent’.

Another resident asked if commuters should be reimbursed the higher transport fares that they paid when oil prices were high, and if the transport companies were making ‘a lot of profits’.

Mr Lim urged his audience to look at the ‘big picture’. He said: ‘We don’t want the companies to be making excessive profits, but that’s different from saying that they cannot make profits at all.’

Like I have said before, the current leadership lea-duhship inspires no confidence in the people. This is yet another classical example of them being so detached from the people in their ivory towers that they either couldn’t feel what the common people is going through, or they wouldn’t give a fxxk at all because they think we are all idiots.

First of all, let’s put an end to this bullshit, Raymond Lemon Lim. Just how much profits should the transport operators make before even you would consider it excessive? Just like the freaking Town Council sinking sink hole funds, please put a cap on it. Or do we need to wait for some smart clerk to come around and siphon off all that money before you guys with your helicopter vision suddenly discovered a need to do something about it?

Frankly, the transport operators repeatedly justify their need to raise fares annually by citing higher operating – especially fuel – costs, and just what arcane formula is being used here to determine the annual increase before the PTC rubber stamps its approval?

It is a clear sign that Lemon is truly out of touch with the economy and farting through his mouth when he even mentioned these: the level of inflation and average wage increases. The fact is, a lot of that inflation is artificial! GST, ERP remember? Not to mention the likes of sugar prices, rice prices going up to drive up the costs of your regular meals, and even your cup of kopitiam coffee!

Anyway, the economy will be shrinking and consumer confidence will plummet as the magnitude of the current recession sinks in. While I don’t expect a deflation, that will still mean inflation returning to saner levels, not to mention negligible or zero wage increases or else companies will need to start retrenching staff. In fact, with our currency devaluing and factoring in inflation, we have technically a negative wage growth! So where is your justification not to reduce fares? It brings me back to ask again, what is the arcane formula used to justify the amount of fare raises since Lemon actually brought up that fuel costs are up 40% but fares are only up 0.7%? Don’t forget, we had record inflation over the past few quarters too!

Is Lemon Lim suggesting that wage increment was the only ‘saving grace’ that kept the fare increment to 0.7% then? Thanks for implicitly admitting that our wage increments suck (other than that of the mini$ter$). That goes to say… we have been bearing a greater burden with almost the same amount of money all the while!

On top of that, if my kneecap or shoulders can think, even they would have figured out that the following two components will be the biggest part of the transport operators’ operating costs – fuel and wages. However, we can see with our own eyes that even when fuel prices was at record levels, the transport operators were still making profits! How did that happen is anybody’s guess, but it suggests that the operators maintain a comfortable amount of ‘strategic fuel reserves’ to protect them for such price jitters. As for wages, didn’t they bring in drivers from China recently?

Lemon Lim is probably trying to act smart by not committing to anything. In fact, he might be just setting the stage to show that the Tali-PAP actually cared for common Singaporeans (they do?) when the PTC reduced fares next September just when the economic conditions will either get worse than it already is, or when it can’t be even worse. But to say that the ‘fare hike is not linked to oil price’ part is just plain lame and dumb. Either way, he showed that he is either not cut to take impromptu questions from the public at all, or he treats us all as idiots.

But if it’s the former, in the future he should always just bring the permanent secretary or whatever along and have that poor sod take the bullet instead.

And by the way, Lemon Lim can go ahead raise GST to 10% if all rides on bus and MRT is free. After all, that sounds like the underlying tone in his reply.


Comics:


Recommended Reads:
Back2Nature: One directional correlation
Cobalt Paladin: Dairy of an Entrepreneur – Fare Hike Is Not Linked To Oil Price?
Endoh’s Dungeon: 1.5% GST increase for free public transport

Daily Discourse – Ica Stones

My parents routinely picks up the Epoch Times [大紀元時報]. Apparently, this is a Falungong Publication, and that it is even approved also for publication locally by MICA is in itself is a surprise considering how Singapore cozies up to China, going so far to offend even a traditional ally like Taiwan.

The articles in it regularly quote all form of religious writings out of their context to make a point specifically against the government gahmen of the People’s Republic of China and also China’s Communist Party. I normally take the paper with me when I am taking a dump, and read the articles published in it with a pinch bucket of salt.

To me it is nothing more than political propaganda hidden in between articles reporting current events. In fact, I consider much of it as absurd, baseless and even comic relief. I recalled an article which talked about a person that has lived several hundred years and this person was linked to many supposedly ‘historical figures’, including * gasp * the fictional Count of Monte Cristo!

So, once again I took a recent copy of the Epoch Times [date 16th – 23rd December] with me as I did my daily Tora Tora Tora [aka dumping session] the other day. In it, I found this article The History Before History Part III, The Ica Stones. (You can find more of such stuff [here].)

The reason that this article caught my eye was because it said something about humans found beside dinosaurs. Since I am never a fan of the theory of evolution, I would examine anything that would upset the theory, and determine if it is absurd later.

So, after the dumping session, I went on to look up articles on the Ica Stones. There weren’t really much articles on it, and those which exists showed nothing conclusive. In fact, after reading the articles, I was confused. The only thing I am sure of, is the collector himself has collected something like 40,000 stones over a period of 40 over years, and he now displays them in a museum of sorts of his own.

What I am not sure of, is whether the stones are outright forgeries or an elaborate hoax. Or are some of them really ancient artifacts, and some – liked like those depicting men riding dinosaurs and advanced medical procedures – just forgeries made by those with ulterior motives? Personally speaking, I think 40,000 stones is not a small number. It would take up a lot of space to store them and it makes one ask the question just why would anyone carve them for no monetary gain at all?

When I looked at the videos on this matter, I noticed that some of the stones cover a wide range of topics and from the details on some of them, I believe it would take some effect to make each of them.

In short, if these are an outright hoax, this seems to be beyond the ability of one person to create. In fact, if it is really a hoax, then there must be a big team behind this and it is a surprise no one has yet discover the people perpetrating it. Perhaps someone should find out just how much money the collector himself has gained from the exposure he is getting out of this, or if anyone else is benefiting from this at all.

However, assuming that they are found to be genuine, then either we are looking at the work of a fiction writer of an ancient civilisation or a historical record that will baffle everyone. But it’s unlikely to be a fiction because it’s going to be hard for people to read it or distribute the story.

Anyway, the Ica stones – if real – is somewhat of a puzzle. But at this point of time when no one has verified it’s authenticity, it is nothing more than just a curiosity.


Comics:


Recommended Reads:
Endoh’s Dungeon: Are Singaporeans really less interested in our mental performance?

心境篇 – “拿信”

“拿信” – 在公司同事之间指拿花红的通知书。这和 “拿大信封” – 指被裁员 – 是有天渊之别的。在这打工打了八年,”拿信” 的日子通常都兴高采烈的,没有像今天这样如此百感交集、五味杂陈。

今年的花红是提早宣布了。原因不是公司赚了大钱,而是因为公司被收购了。也因如此,将在收购后离职的首席执行官 (CEO) 宣布提早把今年的花红发给我们,其中原因是不要在被收购后让买主拒绝发花红给我们。虽然其出发点肯定是为了自己的利益,但和把雷曼兄弟弄到破产的那个天杀的狗杂种相比,这个 CEO 还算有点人性,对大伙儿也基本上可以说是仁至义尽了!

的确,在如此的经济环境之下还能拿花红是很不错的。但也可能是我们在这间公司的最后一次了。明年三月后买主将开始把我们并入其机构中,但是话已经放到前头 – 他们将把焦点放在欧洲,特别是其国内的业务。加上买主到现在都没有公布对我们几间分布在亚洲的分公司 (包括新加坡) 的计划蓝图,大家心里都是很明白 – 凶多吉少和时日无多了。很有可能最迟明年的三月随时随地就会 “拿大信封”。

我在另一间公司任职的友人的老板说得很对: 你们能保住工作就是你们今年最好的花红了!

就算没有先知大能的人都知道,明年失业的人数肯定增加,而且就业机会将相对的减少。僧多粥少… 加上自己又不年轻了,前景实在是不太乐观。如果让我有得选择,我的选择会是:只要还能保住工作,我情愿在经济没好转前没有花红。

毕竟,那比失业强多了。


Comics:


Recommended Reads:
Cobalt Paladin: Diary of an Entrepreneur – Corporate Junk #14

Random Discourse

I have never understood why they called the current economic fubar: Financial Tsunami [金融海啸].

By doing so, it gives people the impression that this is a natural disaster – or an act of God – we can do nothing about to avoid. Yet, Paul Krugman saw this coming, perhaps as far back as 2003.

It is my opinion that the mechanical characteristics of the Earth and economics are two very different animals. In short, it is harder to predict an earthquake compared to financial / economic problems. Unlike a tsunami, this financial fxxk up could have been averted had someone actually listened to Krugman, realised the magnitude of the problem and started doing something back then. Sadly, all the while the people who can do something about it were just happy making their money and claiming that the last thing the economy needed is more government gahmen and repeatedly insist that the vaunted ‘free market’ will regulate itself and things will always turn out alright.

Now, tell me which seismologist tells you that you don’t have to worry about the fault lines and impose special regulations about structural safety because the plates would rub against themselves and then everything will be alright after that?

Simply put, by calling this crisis a tsunami, the people who are in the position to avert this fiasco can now shirk from their responsibilities and put the blame on some power they have no control over. But is that really so?

Anyway, most countries by now realised there will be no quick fix to this mess, nor will there be a turn-around in the short term. There also won’t be a white knight in shining armor loaded with cash to bail everyone out, even though everyone was expecting China to fit into that role in the beginning.

In fact, it is pretty obvious gahmens around the world are now trying to spend themselves out of the recession either by massive infrastructure building projects, or by driving domestic consumer demand. Taiwan is a fine example of the latter.

With an export-based economy without any sizable domestic demand, we are caught between a rock an a hard place. Even if the Singapore gahmen is going to spend in infrastructure, how much of that will trickle down to Singaporeans when most construction-related jobs are filled by foreign labour anyway?

It appeared to me globalisation and the restructuring of our economy had made us even more vulnerable to the current economic crisis [1]. We are perhaps the first in the region to declare ourselves in recession! I won’t be surprise that this maybe Singapore’s worst economic downturn in 50 years, and the most painful one the X-Generation – now in their 30s – will have to bear. Whether they can pull out of it is a question I shudder to ask.

Furthermore, the current Tali-PAP leadership lea-duhsip does not inspire any confidence at all. Take for e.g. the flip-flop over the guarantee of bank deposits. One moment they were saying it is not necessary, and the next moment they decided to do so because Hong Kong has done it. I mean, would they not have considered the fact that as long as someone does it, it will affect the competitiveness and so we might as well just do it in the first place even though there is no lack of confidence in our banking system?

Perhaps they were just attempting to avoid panic, but it makes one wonder whether they even have a grasp of the magnitude of this problem at all!


Comics:


Taken from Scott Adam’s Blog


Recommended Reads:
Random Thoughts of a Free Thinker: A Universal Declaration of Human Responsibilities (proposed)

Daily Discourse – Madoff Scam

An early list of those who are thought to have lost out in Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50bn scam.

Fairfield Greenwich Group – $7.5bn (company statement)
Kingate Management – $3.5bn (Bloomberg)
Banco Santander – $3.1bn direct and indirect exposure (company statement)
Tremont Group – $3.3bn (Bloomberg)
Bank Medici – $2.2bn (company statement)
Ascot Partners LLC – $1.8bn (The Wall Street Journal)
Access International Advisors – $1.4bn (company statement)
Fortis – $1.4bn (company statement)
HSBC – $1bn (Financial Times)
Benbassat & Cie – $935m (Le Temps)
Union Bancaire Privee – $850m (Le Temps)
Royal Bank of Scotland – $594m (company statement)
Natixis – $533m in indirect exposure (company statement)
BNP Paribas – $468m (company statement)
BBVA – $404m (Reuters)
Fix Asset Management – $400m (company statement)
Man Group – $360m (company statement)
Reichmuth & Co – $330m (firm letter to clients)
Nomura Holdings – $302m (company statement)
Maxam Capital Management – $280m (The Wall Street Journal)
EIM Group – $230m (Le Temps)
UniCredit – $100m (company statement)

Societe Generale and UBS – confirmed insignificant exposure.

Deutsche Bank AG, Dresdner Bank AG & Commerzbank AG – declined to comment on the matter.

Amidst all that bad news of failing financial institutions, and news of mergers and acquistions, now this. Is there no end to the bad news surrounding the finance industry?

Is this a wake up call to everyone, that all that wealth is nothing but an illusion, nothing more than just numbers – a figure printed on a piece of paper and that it will get wiped out just like that? Just where will our money be safe?

50 billion (50,000,000,000) U.S. dollars. That’s roughly 73,800,000,000 Singapore dollars. And you know whenever I look at these staggering amounts, the pay of the Tali-PAP mini$ter$ is really ‘peanuts’. Just how the hell did he pull it off? And it’s not a new idea or some really ingenious scheme. It’s something that has been done before – a Ponzi Scheme – which is nothing more than a fraudulent investment scheme paying investors from money paid in by other investors rather than real profits.

It makes one wonder, just how and why it took so long for anyone to find out what this guy has done to bring him to justice? Did no one audit his books? Is it because there wasn’t enough regulation, or because the regulators were sleeping on their jobs?

Similarly, I also need to ask of the risk management people of Bear Sterns, Lehman Lamer brothers, AIG and the likes… You mean you shitheads never realized that the companies you are working for were over-exposed? Just what the hell have you fxxkers all been doing? Ahh.. I know. Just taking your pay and fat bonus while getting yourself drunk and jerked-off at a bordello near Wall Street, right?

As for this Madoff guy… even sentencing him to death would have been letting him off too lightly. There’s only one death he deserved, and that is DEATH BY UMGAWAH

But of course, no humans (nor animals) should be abused to perform the execution. I personally think the Japanese should specifically design a machine for this purpose but the Germans will manufacture it. On top of that, I would like the honor to throw the switch of this thing during the execution.


Moment of the year:


Shoes thrown at George ‘Warmonger’ Bush during a press conference in Iraq.


Recommended Reads:
Nocturne: Defence of the Faith*
Nocturne: Indiscriminate Incrimination*
Cobalt Paladin: Diary of an Entrepreneur – Another “Duh” Moment


Warning: * denotes blog contains some graphical details which might be considered ‘Not Safe For Work’ [NSFW] and self-righteous moralists please refrain from clicking.


History Trivial:
講到慈禧之過,隨口算來包括導致甲午戰敗,撲滅戊戌變法,用義和團引來八國聯軍等等,似乎真有點罄竹難書;但若論其功,則重用漢臣,開辦洋務運動,奠立中國近代化工業基礎,造就同治中興氣象,以新式教育取代科舉,禁止婦女纏足等,倒也頗有可書之處。
而慈禧的家人除了襲「承恩公」的一個虛爵之外,並無他人能干涉朝政,在封建皇權時代,尤屬難得。

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