Been here coming to 2.5 days.

Saw a bit of things but have yet taken out my friend’s camera to go take any photos. Maybe later tonight I’ll head off to the Bund [外滩 aka 上海滩], about 20 minute walk from my hotel, and take some pictures. But meantime, here’s an update for the past few days…

Transport

I got the shock of my life when I took a cab from Pudong International Airport into Puxi (Shanghai Proper). If anyone thinks Singaporean cab drivers are bad, they really need to try the Shanghai ones. They would accelerate and close the distance with the vehicle in front even when it’s just 30 – 40 meters, and veer suddenly to either side when it is clear the vehicle in front is stopping. On several occasions, I held tightly onto the door, speechless, concerned and worried that the next minute would be my last or that we might crash into the back of some truck. And in my personal opinion, I doubt any Singaporean driver would survive a day here in Shanghai.

The drivers – not just the cab drivers alone – uses the horn so frequently that it’s a constant background noise. It is pretty amazing just how impatient the drivers are. They honk when the light turns green and the driver ahead was too slow to move. They honk, when another driver cuts into their lane. They honk, if the driver ahead let someone into the lane. The scooter-cyclist honks, the bus driver honks, the tram driver honks, and the pedestrians obviously don’t give a damn at the traffic lights. You can see people mill around while motor vehicles of all sizes zoom past on their merry way and yet surprisingly, no one gets killed. They even honk when there’s a jam, as if that’s any good at all because the traffic has come to a dead stop!

Cabs in Shanghai is cheap (in S$ terms). The flag down fare is RMB $11 [approx. S$2] and I believe that for the first 3km. There are also lots of cab and you will never have a problem flagging one down. I must say, maybe it’s really time they abolish the call charges in Singapore. In other words, if you don’t like the metro, take a cab. Now I understand why my friend’s Chinese ex-girlfriend was so perplexed by the fact that we refused to take a cab and claims she does that in China all the time.

The metro – in the Singaporean context, the MRT – uses a contactless fare card which is much thinner than Singapore’s. It’s somewhat like the old magnetic strip card we used previously. If the Chinese can do it, it makes one wonder just why we implemented a crazy system with such a thick card in which you need to pay a deposit and then return the card at the fare machine when you should just return it when you exit and walk off right away. So much for our million dollar mini$ter$.

Above which, I found a station in a state of upgrading and yet in use. They were putting in sliding doors on the platform, and you can see them in various state of completion. I must say it’s high time SMRT considers doing the same for their above ground stations to stop those inconsiderate people from getting themselves splattered all over the track like strawberry jam.

The food

The food here comes in huge portions. My personal opinion is that if you aren’t a big eater, avoid ordering a set meal. On two occasions I ordered a set meal I walked away so full I get a little stomach ache. The set meals are not really cheap if you convert to S$ terms, but still, the portion makes them value for money, and some of these meals are served in restaurants, not your run of the mill food courts. You probably can’t get the same amount of food for the same value in Singapore.

There’s a lot of other foods everywhere. You just need to walk in and join the queue and you get the real authentic Shanghainese food – or food claimed to be a famous one in other parts of China – on the fly.

A City of Paradox

Shanghai’s building density is definitely heavier than Singapore. There are just far more buildings and far less open spaces. There are also lots of people, way way more than Singapore when I went to the more popular places like 徐家汇 [Xujiahui], and the immediate area around 南京路步行街 [The Nanjing Road walking street].

Shanghai’s is really just another modern, cosmopolitan city where it is not difficult for you to see a foreigner on the streets. Starbucks, Coffee Bean, MacDonald’s, Kentucky and Pizza Hut is everywhere.

Yet, I have also seen someone standing by the side of a building to pee in bright daylight at the suburbs on my way into Puxi, and several beggars in Puxi itself. And yes, the beggars here – along with the peddlers peddling their wares – are very persistent, they might trail you for some way before they give up. The same goes for the pimps offering sex services and ‘dirty massages’. There are also sections of Shanghai, which my friend told me, has no modern sanitation.

As I stood looking at the sign that says 创新是一个民族进步的灵魂 [Innovation is the soul of progress of the people], when I looked at the diligent Chinese people milling around in the bookstores around technological books, and when I looked at the desolated try to etch a living in this prosperous city, it makes me wonder, am I witnessing history and the birth of a new superpower? Even though ethnically Chinese, I can’t help but feel a little concern for our next generation which will compete against the Chinese people.

Is Shanghai the future of all China? Or is this just a short burst of glory for this once great and glorious civilisation?

Several days ago I chanced upon an article on a evening Chinese tabloid that an undergrad lost $700,000 in the stock market. His father has to give up his entire savings of $300,000 to help him pay his debts, and his own girlfriend left him, because she could take it no more. She had helped him pay for his losses with her credit cards until all of them hit their respective limits.

On discussing the plight of this poor sod with some friends, we discussed whether it is now a good time to start ‘investing’ again after the recent few ‘corrections’. None of us are investment or trading gurus, and in the discussion, we came up with some of these…

1. There is NEVER a hurry to buy.

   The reason is very simple. Just like you buy things in a normal market, when you have the money, you wait for the best bargain. Don’t let someone tell you that the price can’t be lower and this is the best time to buy. There will be other windows of opportunity, and it is best to just sit tight, and not rush in blindly.

   And if someone tells you to buy a stock now because ‘sure earn’, just tell him to sell everything he has – his house, car, wife and children, and whatever – quit his job, and borrow tons of money from the loan shark and bet his entire life on it. Let him prove his point with his own action, or else just tell him to go fxxk himself.

2. There is only a hurry to sell. The reasons are:

   The stock price has hit your take profit level: DON’T BE GREEDY. Take profit and don’t hold back and hope for it to go up another 50%. Don’t be concerned about the possible ‘gains’, but rather, be wary of the fact that the stock price can drop below you take profit level and then never recover from there. Remember, money is only real when it sits in your pocket, not when it’s just a fluctuating figure on your spreadsheet.

   The stock price has hit your ‘stop loss’ level: BE DISCIPLINED. Give it up when you know for you have made a bad decision. One who fights and runs away, may live to fight another day.

   Losing badly on a stock you have no intention / no money to pick up: Don’t hold on until the last day – before the exchange initiate a force sell – to liquidate your position when this happens. If you believe in luck, then try 4D or TOTO, not the stock market.

   Above which, there must be a reason for the auto-sell feature when you hit a margin call in margin trading – i.e. the broker didn’t like your risk exposure and he did the most PRUDENT thing – even if you didn’t like it – to cut loss and run.

3. Don’t take ‘tips’ on what to buy too seriously.

   As I have said before, no one can guarantee 100% that a stock will go up. Above which, you also don’t know how long the so-called ‘tip’ has been in circulation, or how many people have already heard about it.

   The longer it has been in circulation, and the more people have heard about it, the less valuable such a tip is. You do not need an explanation to understand a tip heard at 9:30am is worth donuts when you are told only at 4:30pm, or if you are the 100,000th Ah Beng to hear about it.

   Above which, recommendations from analysts to buy, may or may not necessarily benefit a small investor like you. Remember the analyst works for his employer – be it the bank or a brokerage – and he doesn’t work for you. It is simply common sense to assume, that the analyst who wrote that analysis has the interest of his employer at heart, and not yours since you are not writing his paycheck. And in fact, you might be the one taking the losses to make up for the profits of his employer to pay his salary.

   If you still don’t get it, then refer to point 1: there is no hurry to buy!

4. Take ‘expert comments’ with a pinch of salt.

   E.g. #1: Alan Green-sperm says the economy may go into recession, but Barnie – or the Monkey Mentor – says the economy will remain rosy;

   E.g. #2: Star Analyst A from ‘Giant Brokerage’ says this stock is a piece of shit because the company’s turnover is high but profits is crap while Great Analyst B from ‘Silly-Bank’ says the same stock is a good buy because it got potential.

   So who to believe?

   Just remember these are all just opinions and not everyone will share them. How the market will go depends on which side has gotten the most money going for it. For all you know the people with the money to move the market just flipped a coin to decide on which opinion to support and it doesn’t really say who is right anyway!

   Simply learn to ‘fade the news’ – i.e. let the elephants end their stampeding before you go the water hole to drink. You might get lucky by rushing in as if there will be no tomorrow, but the regret is only yours when you get stomped into the ground.

5. Don’t watch too many counters.

   In the wild, predators will observe just a few animals in a herd before they launch an attack. They don’t watch all the 1001 animals in the herd.

   Simply put, there are many counters on the stock exchange and if you watch too many of them, the chances are that you will end up making more bad decisions and end up losing in MORE of them than making the right decisions.

   Above which, why watch say, the hypothetical stock of Phua Chu Kang Pte Ltd, where no one would care or have any idea what it does, compared to SingTel, or StarHub?

   The sheer lack of activity – or liquidity – from Phua Chu Kang Pte Ltd and its slow moving may make you so tired you fall asleep and you end up not making the right decisions at the right time!

   Furthermore, a stock you have no idea about its core business or a stock that lacks the interest of the general public will not get very much mention anyway. The general public probably isn’t even interested in how the company is doing. On the other hand, you will know when SingTel or StarHub is making a profit or a loss, or when it is making certain major corporate moves which might impact stock prices. In simpler words, better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t.

These points are definitely not meant as a guideline on how you should trade or invest in the stock market. There are many books out there written by more qualified people to help you with that. (You might also want to read this site for some enlightenment as well.)

While those books won’t make you a millionaire, they would at least prevent you from turning into a bankrupt.

Finally, remember this: There is no easy money in the world, the stock market is not a casino and don’t trade stocks like a gamble. If you want to try your luck and look for easy money, just spend $1 every draw on 4D or TOTO. Your risk and maximum loss will just only be $1.