Click for Enlarged

Now that the new electoral boundaries have been finalised, it is certain that the General Election won’t be very far away. Some are putting their bets on a lightning election in late March, while many on some time in May.

With the boundaries redrawn, part of the West Coast Group Representative Constituency (GRC) – which I used to be a part of – has been carved out to form a new Single-Member Constituency (SMC) called Pioneer – whereby I am now a ‘member’. My best guess (since I do not have the actual maps marking the boundaries and I hadn’t bothered reading the local papers) is that the junction of Jurong West Central 1 and Jalan Boon Lay forms the north eastern corner of Pioneer SMC. The ‘thumb’ of West Coast GRC, hemmed in between Hong Kah North SMC and Pioneer SMC will be the area bordered by Jurong West Street 61 to the West and Jalan Boon Lay to the East with Jurong West Ave 2 and 4 forming the northern border while Jurong West Central 1 and Street 62 forming its southern counterpart. If my ‘guess-timate’ is right, even Pioneer Mall itself would be within the boundaries of the West Coast GRC! I personally think that the new boundaries are insane and you just have to take a look at the simple map attached here to see just how ridiculous West Coast GRC is. Anyway, I am happy that I am in an SMC in spite of the insane boundaries. After all, it is almost certain that it will be contested and it will be the first time in my life that I will be voting.

The image on the right shows which constituency I am in when I checked using my Singpass on the Elections Deparment Website. It also tells me that my polling district is ‘PI-WE-40’, and I believe that will decide my polling station as well. There is really not much importance in this information to most individuals, but it would be of some great importance to the political parties which intend to contest the area, especially if it was contested in the last election.

The reason being, even though the candidates will not know who you or your neighbours voted for, they will have a general idea of their support in a particular area. It basically allows any ruling party to ‘gerrymander’ as they can ‘move’ polling districts between neighbouring constituencies – i.e. merging polling districts where the opposition is having a strong showing into a constituency where support for the ruling party is strong, or offer goodies targeted at that specific polling district to attract votes. Polling district absorptions work especially well in favor of the ruling party in Singapore because the local opposition parties are not strong enough to contest all the constituencies, and many do not constantly work the ground as some observers have rightly criticised.

That information is probably why Sylvia Lim mentioned that the Workers’ Party [WP] has ‘significant support’ in the districts next to Hougang. She definitely isn’t farting out of her mouth because any political party worth its salt should keep a record of these information so they can work the ground and entrench their support – something the WP seems to be doing. ‘The Hammer Party’ (and for all odd reasons I was reminded of the Axe gang in Stephen Chow’s ‘Kung Fu Hustle’ even when there is no relationship) has maintained a presence in areas where it has on more than one occasion almost won – the defunct Eunos and Cheng San GRCs – in between elections. In fact, while some had considered Yaw Shin Leong’s team which contested Ang Mo Kio GRC in 2006 to be a kamikaze squad, I believed they did it for good reason. That attempt would have given them information on how much residue support remained in the polling districts of Cheng San absorbed by Ang Mo Kio, and to make a decision whether to maintain a presence in those areas considering that WP do not have as much resources as the People’s Action Party [PAP] Tali-PAP. Had the votes polled been around 20 ~ 25%, it would have been as good as nothing since it would indicate that the middle voters has either abandoned the WP, or simply ‘abstained’ (if there is a high number of spoilt votes).

Based on this, it is my considered opinion that the By-Election Effect Strategy (BEES) should be abandoned. For the uninitiated, the By-Election Effect Strategy is a strategy adopted by the Singapore Democrat Party [SDP] of the Chiam-era (before it was taken over by the current group of charlatans) in which it allows the ruling party to be returned to power on nomination day itself. It is ‘designed’ in such a way that the the electorate in the contested constituencies can vote without the fearing the so-called ‘freak result’ in which the capable ruling party is voted out of power. After all, the BEES simply invites the middle voters who would otherwise not vote for the opposition to throw caution to the wind. The strategy does have some effect, since in areas contested by the Singapore Democratic Alliance [SDA] (Chiam’s ‘new outfit’ after he left the SDP), I noticed that they do get another about 5 ~ 10% of votes on top of the usual 20 ~ 25% of anti-PAP votes.

Even so, I do not think very highly of the SDA’s effectiveness. After all, the SDA’s main objective appears to coordinate the actions of the opposition part to avoid 3-cornered fights in SMCs, and also to put together teams to contest in GRCs. However, the SDA never seem to stick to one place for long (with the exception of Sin Kek Tong who stick with Braddell Heights until it was absorbed by Marine Parade GRC). That gives everyone the impression of their member parties being nothing more than just ‘election parties’. The issue here is simply that even though they maybe able to put together a team to contest (and avoid a 3-corner fight while they are at it), they will be contesting in a place where there is no firm support for the opposition beyond the traditional 20 ~ 25% of Tali-PAP haters.

That said, I still expect a lower margin for the Tali-PAP in the coming election, though I don’t think there will be much significant changes in the make up in Parliament. The so-called ‘social media’ (e.g. Facebook and microblogs like Twitter and Plurk) probably will play a significant part in the coming elections, but I doubt even with them we would attain the kind of election fever like that of Taiwan. The opposition parties here can dream about riding high on the Internet much like President Emperor Obama, but I doubt it is likely to happen (even though I don’t mind being proven wrong).

It can be said that the ground sentiment favors the opposition this time round – since many Singaporeans are concerned (if not pissed off) with the immigration policies, foreign workers, housing and the increasing cost of living. However, Singaporeans simply do not possess the kind of political fervor. The opposition also seems to be in disarray, as I constantly read about the bickering between Madam Chiam (I almost typed Madam Chiang) and Desmond Lim, and the Reform Party is beset by mass resignation among its members. At times, I am not sure whether some opposition parties make any sense at all. For e.g. even if the recent budget in terms of monetary hand outs to the people is disappointing, then how much do they think is a better figure? On top of which, if the hand outs are indeed disappointing, they should silently thank the Tali-PAP for doing them a favor. After all, if the ‘goodies’ in the budget is not enough, the people now have a ‘good reason’ to vote against them.

That said, I would hope the opposition capture some of the SMCs. Even though we have all the necessary components of a democracy – such as the rule of law, plans for nation building and a sizable middle class, our democracy in terms of social participation is weak, if not non existent. I would like to see this particular pillar of democracy strengthen. It is high time that we bring more live into our parliamentary debates instead of looking at some Tali-PAP MPs falling asleep in Parliament sessions or a large part of it being empty. Of course, I expect our elected members not to resort to their fists and legs to bring their point across.